Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Oh, the humanity!

Thanks to Steve Pederson, Nebraska not only surrendered the Big 12 to Texas and Oklahoma . . . and Oklahoma State and Texas A&M . . . and Missouri and Kansas State . . . and Colorado and Texas Tech, but now it's surrendered the state of Nebraska to Nebraska-Omaha.

THAT'S THE Division II
University of Nebraska at Omaha Mavericks, ranked No. 28 this week in the Massey computer ratings. The Huskers are No. 53.

In its Wednesday editions -- hitting the streets just before the impending Apocalypse -- the
Omaha World-Herald reports on Husker Nation's final humiliation:
There is a team ranked No. 28 by one of the computer formulas used to determine the Bowl Championship Series standings, but it is not angling for a shot at a bowl game.

This team is ranked just behind UCLA, USC and California, and just ahead of Clemson, Penn State, Purdue, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, and is not complaining about falling seven spots, from No. 21, despite winning last week.

This team is the University of Nebraska . . . at Omaha.

"If that's where they have us, then that must be exactly where we should be," UNO coach Pat Behrns said, laughing.

While UNO, at 7-0, has proven to be one of the top teams in Division II, there aren't many who believe that the Mavericks are playing at a level to compare with college football's heavyweights. That includes Kenneth Massey, whose computer formula currently has UNO among the best teams in the land.

"It's kind of a flaw in the system," he said. "We're not allowed to use margin of victory, just wins and losses, for the BCS. And to be fair, everybody starts out at zero at the beginning of the season — from LSU down to the worst NAIA team. You don't want to assume that a Division II team isn't as good as a I-A team until that's proven on the field, and sometimes it takes more than six or seven weeks, even a whole season, until enough results are in to make it conclusive."

Massey, 30, who earned a mathematics degree from Virginia Tech and is based in Tennessee, began computer ratings as a hobby in the mid-1990s. His ratings have been used as part of the BCS formula since 1999.

He said it wasn't as easy for a Division II team to sneak high into the overall ratings when margin of victory was part of the formula. Using margin of victory, UNO is No. 78 in the Massey Ratings.

Massey said UNO's wins over North Dakota and Northwest Missouri State — two teams that are otherwise unbeaten — have helped push up its rating to No. 28. The next highest Division II team behind UNO is North Alabama at 66. North Dakota is No. 76 and Northwest Missouri State is No. 79.

Staying undefeated against a schedule filled with teams with good records keeps a team's rating high.

"They are propping each other up, but as soon as that house of cards crumbles — and it only takes one upset — things will change," he said. "They'll still be ranked high compared to other Division II teams, but they won't be overly high as they are now."

(snip)

"I've never really seen a Division II team play a (BCS) team," Behrns said. "Most of the Division II teams that have gone out and played I-AA teams have done a decent job, but that's still a heck of a step up."

Just for the record, Nebraska is No. 53 in the Massey Ratings, well below the Mavs. Using margin of victory, the Huskers are at No. 75, three spots better than UNO.

"They're not better (than Nebraska), but they've been more impressive this year," Massey said. "They haven't lost a game, and Nebraska has. In order to say Nebraska is better, you have to have prior knowledge — you have to know that Nebraska is bigger and faster and is a Division I team. But (to the computer) Nebraska hasn't shown anything on the field to indicate it's any better than Omaha."
CAN THERE BE ANY DOUBT that Coach Bill Callahan is just as toast as the fool who hired him? It's just that new athletic director/old legend Tom Osborne is too decent a man to fire his sorry ass before he has well and truly hung himself with all the rope he's been handed.

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