Monday, March 05, 2007

Going . . . going . . .

Jackson Square, 1984. This (as well as the courtyard below) will be oceanfront
property by 2024 -- probably sooner --
to be left in ruins by the first decent
hurricane's storm surge.



HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES to be the great exposer of Louisiana's -- indeed, America's -- Rot Below the Surface (TM). Back on the front burner, thanks to Bob Marshall's staggering series in the New Orleans Times-Picayune this week, is the little matter of Disappearing Louisiana.

Literally. Sinking beneath the Gulf waves, day by day, no end in sight.

The satellite map in Kerry St. Pe's office shows the great sweep of marshes protecting New Orleans from the Gulf in bright red, a warning they will vanish by the year 2040, putting the sea at the city's doorstep.

Coastal scientists produced the map three years ago.

They now know they got it wrong.

"People think we still have 20, 30, 40 years left to get this done. They're not even close," said St. Pe, director of the Barataria-Terrebonne National Estuary Program, which seeks to save one of the coast's most threatened and strategically vital zones.

"Ten years is how much time we have left -- if that."

That new time frame for when the Gulf could reach New Orleans' suburbs sharply reduces projections that have stood for more than three decades. Unless the state rapidly reverses the land loss, coastal scientists say, by the middle of the next decade the cost of repair likely will be too daunting for Congress to accept -- and take far too long to implement under the current approval process.

Interviews with the leading coastal scientists, as well as state and federal officials, brought no disagreement with that stark new prognosis. And while the predictions stand at odds with nearly a decade of official optimism, scientists said the death and destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina prompted them to voice private concerns that have been growing in recent years.

"I think that shocked us as much as any other group," said Robert Twilley, director of Louisiana State University's Gulf restoration initiative who has worked on the issue for years. "I think our concern now is that we may have contributed to false optimism."

Unless, within 10 years, the state begins creating more wetlands than it is losing -- a task that will require billions of dollars in complex and politically sensitive projects -- scientists said a series of catastrophes could begin to unfold over the next decade.

In 10 years, at current land-loss rates:

-- Gulf waves that once ended on barrier island beaches far from the city could be crashing on levees behind suburban lawns.

-- The state will be forced to begin abandoning outlying communities such as Lafitte, Golden Meadow, Cocodrie, Montegut, Leeville, Grand Isle and Port Fourchon.

-- The infrastructure serving a vital portion of the nation's domestic energy production will be exposed to the encroaching Gulf.

-- Many levees built to withstand a few hours of storm surge will be standing in water 24 hours a day -- and facing the monster surges that come with tropical storms.

-- Hurricanes approaching from the south will treat the city like beachfront property, crushing it with forces like those experienced by the Mississippi Gulf Coast during Katrina.

The entire nation would reel from the losses. The state's coastal wetlands, the largest in the continental United States, nourish huge industries that serve all Americans, not just residents of southeastern Louisiana. Twenty-seven percent of America's oil and 30 percent of its gas travels through the state's coast, serving half of the nation's refinery capacity, an infrastructure that few other states would welcome and that would take years to relocate. Ports along the Mississippi River, including the giant Port of New Orleans and the Port of South Louisiana in LaPlace, handle 56 percent of the nation's grain shipments. And the estuaries now rapidly turning to open water produce half of the nation's wild shrimp crop and about a third of its oysters and blue claw crabs. Studies show destruction of the wetlands protecting the infrastructure serving those industries would put $103 billion in assets at risk.

Despite such dire threats, the most disturbing concern may be this: Coastal restoration efforts have been under way for two decades, but not a single project capable of reversing the trend currently awaits approval.

The modest restoration efforts already under way have no chance of making a serious impact, experts say.

"It's like putting makeup on a corpse," said Mark Schexnayder, a regional coastal adviser with LSU's Sea Grant College Program who has spent 20 years involved in coastal restoration.

Decades after scientists alerted the nation to the problem, the Gulf not only continues to eat into the coast, its appetite remains insatiable: For every square mile the state has created since 1989, when serious restoration efforts started, the Gulf has devoured 5 more miles. Looking at just the wetlands surrounding New Orleans, the prognosis grows even more ominous, because these are the areas with the highest rates of loss on the coast.

Congress provided a note of hope last year, voting the state a permanent 37.5 percent slice of offshore oil revenues for coastal restoration work. But full financing -- some $650 million annually -- won't kick in until 2017. During the critical next decade, the state will be receiving only about $20 million a year, a pittance in the face of a problem that will require tens of billions of dollars to solve. Although the state could borrow against future revenues, scores of logistical and political hurdles remain.

St. Pe and others say 10 years will be too late for many coastal communities; they'll have to be moved within the next decade if serious land-building hasn't already started.

"If we aren't building land I can walk on inside of 10 years, we'll be moving communities," St. Pe said. "It's already the witching hour for a lot of these places, and a lot of other places are next."
TAKE NOTE. Inside of 20 years -- if social and political dysfunction doesn't do the deed sooner -- the defining story of our time will be the evacuation of New Orleans . . . forever . . . and the collapse of much of this nation's petrochemical infrastructure.

And because we did not care that a Third World state existed amid First World opulence, because we did not care that that Third World state sank from our consciousness into the deep blue sea, we will inevitably become a poorer, dessicated shell of the nation we once were.

Enjoy your wealth while you still can indulge your greed, America.

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